Upcoming events in the USA: Leading Demand Indicators Report June 14

As the USA eases into its new normal, it can be easy to forget this time last year and realise how much has changed, and how rapid this pace of change is. Events across the US were almost completely wiped out, and with it billions of dollars in demand for businesses from accommodation to retail to transport and event businesses themselves. Below is a graph of the event attendees at all events  from the last two and a half years:

Yep, mid 2020 was pretty grim, but what’s more interesting is how swiftly impactful events are returning at scale, especially as postponed events (the orange line in the graph below) from both 2020 and earlier 2021 are being locked in for the end of this year. Here’s a more detailed look at the event impact from January 2020 through to later this year.

But both rescheduled events and the pent-up demand caused by this event lull are already roaring back. For a great overview of the return of events, see this Recode article we contributed data and insight to.

At PredictHQ, our job is to build systems that track, verify and enrich events across 19 categories (with more coming soon). We work closely with our customers, and it’s fair to say the rapid return of events has taken even those of us tracking it closely by surprise. But this is very much a good surprise, after 18 months or so defined by bad surprises.

Which events are returning the fastest?

Each week, we share a graph of the events scheduled in the preceding seven days by category. This week, it looks similar to how it has since May – dominated by concerts. There were more concerts than most other categories of events in pre-pandemic time, as our systems track everything from small gigs at the corner bar through to major concerts that sell out stadiums night after night.

Today, I want to explore that thin slate blue line in each of these, because therein lies one of the most impactful events for business: expos.

The return of expos in 2021

Expos have never been one of the categories with the most events. Expos tend to be large, with at least several hundred attendees and often thousands or tens of thousands. They play an essential role in commerce, connecting businesses to each other and their customers. 

As soon as restrictions began easing, our team began fielding questions about their rate of return. These came mostly from our accommodation, airline and transport customers, but also from retail and food retail customers that had stores set up near key expo and associated accommodation locations.

A good way to understand the return of events is to compare the total predicted attendance of an event category in 2021, compared to 2019. PredictHQ uses a unique model to accurately predict the attendance of each event, which enables us to provide this analysis.

Comparing predicted attendance rather than the actual volume of events is important because there are already many large events are clustered in the second half of 2021, as many have been rescheduled from earlier this year.

Using this process and adding up all the attendees expected at expos in 2021 compared to 2019 for the same period, 2021 is on track to see more demand generated by expos than the pre-pandemic year:

• Expo attendance in total across the USA is already at 68% of its 2019 levels, with many more large expos being scheduled each week.

• And this 68% belies the enormous rebound we’re seeing in the more proactive states.

• Nevada is at 114%

• Texas is at 267%

• And even California, which will lift its restrictions this week, is already at 63% despite being one of the slowest states to recover (although this is changing rapidly).

Here is a heat map of expos from July to October 2021:

Some notable upcoming expos include:

• MetroCon on July 23 -25 in Tampa, Florida with over 10,000 people expected

• MegaCon on August 12 -15 in Orlando, Florida with over 80,000 people expected

• NAFEM Show on August 26 -28 in Orlando, Florida  with 17,000 people expected

• Jacksonville Home Show on August 14 - 15 in Jacksonville, Florida with 16,000 people expected

• Magic Las Vegas on August 9 - 11 in Las Vegas, Nevada with over 62,000 people expected

• ISC West on July 19 - 21 in Las Vegas, Nevada with over 20,000 people expected

• Maricopa County Home Shows - Home & Landscape Show -  on July 16 - 18 in Glendale, Arizona with 20,000 people expected

• Home Garden & Remodeling Show on July 30 - August 1 in Louisville, Kentucky with 20,000 people expected

• AISTech on June 29 - July 1 in Nashville, Tennessee with 4,000 people expected

• The Makeup Show Houston on August 21 - 22 in Houston, Texas with 5,000 people expected

These events have enormous economic impact. In June alone, expos and conferences will generate at least $206 million of demand for businesses nearby.

The cities scheduling events the fastest this week

Las Vegas was the busiest city in May when we launched these reports, but its announcement that it was lifting all restrictions from June 10 has seen an explosion of events in the entertainment capital.

So significant is this surge it has knocked the far more populous state and previous chart-topping state, California, out of lead spot for the busiest state this week.

Don't underestimate performing arts events

Performing arts continues to be one of the most frequently scheduled events, as these range from a few hundred people gathering to watch a show up to tens of thousands.

Some notable upcoming performing arts events include:

• Joe Rogan: The Sacred Clown Tour on August 26 in Sunrise, Florida with 2,788 people expected

• Sebastian Maniscalco: Nobody Does This Tour on July 16 in Sugar Land, Texas with over 5,000 people expected

• Criss Angel Mindfreak on August 5 in Las Vegas, Nevada with 500 people expected

• Jim Gaffigan: The Fun Tour on August 27 in Irving, Texas with 2,000 people expected

• Blippi The Musical on July 8 in Allen, Texas with 2,000 people expected

• Bill Maher on July 11 in Irving, Texas with over 2,000 people expected

• Jeff Dunham on August 20 in Uncasville, Connecticut with 4,000 people expected

• Teo Gonzalez & Jorge Falcon on August 7 in Los Angeles, California with over 3,400 people expected

• Tom Segura: I'm Coming Everywhere - World Tour on August 21 in Hammond, Indiana with 2,500 people expected

• Elton John Tribute on July 4 in Irvine, California with over 2,300 people expected

As the event recovery continues, demand anomalies for businesses that aren’t real-world aware will increase in both volume and severity. PredictHQ is supplying our customers with impactful events across the world, both verified and standardized, from 19 categories in one API. To find out how leading companies such as Uber, Domino’s and major hotel chains are using this data, explore our use cases. 

We will be releasing weekly editions of this Leading Demand Indicators report. Sign up to receive it in your inbox early each week.