More than $1.6 billion worth of events scheduled for June 2021
After a long, strange pandemic year, many businesses are struggling. And every business is grappling with a new and daunting challenge: having no historical touchpoint to forecast demand from. Last year was an anomaly, and 2019 is from a different era. As the United States continues its dynamic and chaotic recovery, your sales from a few months and even weeks ago can’t be relied upon.
Especially because attended events - think sports, concerts, festivals, conferences and community events - are returning in a big way across the nation. Events drive demand, so these need to be factored into your plans.
PredictHQ tracks and verifies the world’s impactful events. In April, more than 28,000 events were scheduled for 2021 across the USA. That’s a lot of events. And June is the first month since February 2020 that these events are expected to drive more than $1 billion in demand. For comparison, May 2021’s total estimated demand is $530 million.
Because this is such an important opportunity for American businesses, we decided to share this publicly to ensure your company is ready.
How we calculated the events are worth $1.6 billion
Or $1,678,851,221 to be exact. Our data science and economic value quantification team followed the following process to get to the $1.6 billion:
Identified ~2500 of the highest impact (most attendees) attended events in June 2021 of the 16,156 logged in our system as of early May 2021.
These were sports games, conferences, expos, performing arts and community events with more than 1,000 attendees.
We then used a model to calculate a conservative economic impact stat factoring in accommodation spend, transportation spend and meal/food spend per event, based on research and surveys.
We didn’t include wages, taxes or other economic value from events, as these are far more varied. Two conferences can employ very different volumes of staff for example.
What we noticed in our analysis is that about 70% of total estimated spend for the month of May is due to major sporting events, which make up almost 80% of all attended events for the month. Major sporting events happening this month that are contributing the most in total demand include the Indianapolis 500, a PGA tournament, and NASCAR Cup Series race.
| Event category | Volume of events in this calculation | Estimated economic impact |
|---|---|---|
| Conferences + Expos | 213 | $206.4M |
| Sports events | 1,311 | $504.6M |
| Performing arts | 140 | $4.2M |
| Concerts + festivals | 974 | $962.5M |
| Large community events | 15 | $1.2M |
| Total | 2653 | $1.6B |
For the month of June, we noticed a big bump in demand due to a ~260% increase in concerts and festivals from the previous month. Total economic impact for concerts and festivals alone make up almost $1.0B, about 60% of total economic impact driven by attended events for the entire month. We're also seeing more larger events and more longer events (which drive accommodation bookings). Here's how larger events in the USA have increased in the last quarter:
March: Of the thousands of events scheduled, 1,085 events had 1,000 - 5,000 people and 192 events of 5,000+ people.
April: 1,191 events had 1,000 - 5,000 people and 714 events of 5,000+ people.
May: 1,598 events had 1,000 - 5,000 people and 897 events of 5,000+ people.
June: 1,843 events are set to have 1,000 - 5,000 people, and 1,163 events of 5,000+ people.
Here are some examples of high impact events scheduled for June:
| Event= | Location | Estimated economic impact |
|---|---|---|
| Fiesta San Antonio | San Antonio, TX | $206.4M |
| San Diego County Fair/Homegrown Fun | Del Mar, CA | $97.3M |
| Philadelphia Phillies vs San Francisco Giants | San Francisco, CA | $2.6M |
| Laconia Motorcyle Week | Laconia, NH | $71.2M |
| Fashion Market Northern California | Los Angeles, CA | $3M |
| World of Concrete Expo | Las Vegas, NV | $11.6M |
| Wichita Riverfest | Wichita, KS | $28M |
| Cedar Rapids Freedom Festival | Cedar Rapid, IA | $38.7M |
Because our models are conservative and we are only focusing on the highest impact events, this means $1.6 billion is only the beginning of the economic value events will drive.
Growing from $530 million to $1.6 billion in a month is an indication of pent up demand - and it’s only just getting started
Those new to the enormous economic impact events drive may be asking how events can more than triple in a month. The short answer is easing restrictions is causing a surge in events (more details below). A few data points to keep in mind:
Pre-pandemic, events were estimated to drive $1.5 trillion globally each year in economic activity and nearly 30 million jobs from business events alone. (source)
Sports in the US drive billions. Previous research has found when pooled together, the NFL, MLB, NBA, and NHL franchises were collectively valued at $66 billion (source).
The cancellation and postponement of 21 tech conferences as COVID-19 hit the USA in 2020 cost more than a billion dollars (source: PredictHQ research for Recode).
And those big tech conferences are also being rescheduled. The world’s largest B2B tech event, Saastr, is scheduled to return in San Mateo, California in September 2021. People will need flights, accommodation, transport, as well as food, drinks and entertainment while there.
With such significant demand-drivers beginning to return at scale in the USA, the most important question is how ready is your business? Leading transport, travel and retail businesses have integrated PredictHQ’s intelligent event data API into their forecasting models (get in touch as soon as you can to ensure you’re ready for the coming boom). Knowing when event-driven demand anomalies will occur enables teams to have correctly calibrated staff, stock and pricing strategies to make the most of every event.
$1.6 billion is only the beginning: the big May to July reopening is upon us
The surge in events we saw from May to June is most likely driven by restrictions easing, vaccinations rates increasing and consumer confidence returning.
The pace of easing restrictions accelerates in May, June and into July, with major lifting of remaining restrictions across many of the USA’s most populous states. Including:
Minnesota on May 28
Rhode Island on May 28
Pennsylvania on May 30
Nevada on June 1
North Carolina on June 1
Virginia on June 15
California on June 15
Oregon on June 30
Vermont on July 4
The opportunity for business to become real-world aware and unlock profits and efficiencies is huge in the next few months. Companies such as Uber, Domino’s and Alaska Airlines are using our demand intelligence API to make smart localized decisions at scale, and we would love to give you insight into the opportunities your company can be optimizing for. Explore our use cases and get in touch directly to explore directly.
