Ensure forecasting accuracy with Demand Impact Patterns

Some events can impact local businesses before they begin and after they end, making the impact harder to track. Use PredictHQ Demand Impact Patterns to better understand how your business is impacted by events before, during, and after they take place.
What are the demand impact patterns?

Anticipate how events will shape consumer behavior

Demand Impact Patterns help you better anticipate and plan for fluctuations in demand associated with various event types by flagging ‘leading’ and ‘lagging’ days, which are the days before and after an event occurs.

For our attendance-based categories, the feature extends and adjusts an event’s attendance across these leading and lagging days – so you can easily visualize the realistic ramp-up in attendance to the actual event, and a gradual tapering off once the event concludes. We do the same with our severe weather category, it just isn’t based on attendance.

Boost demand forecasting accuracy

Improve your demand forecasting models

Leverage Demand Impact Patterns to prepare your business for the influx of attendees before they even arrive in town – and after the event, you can adjust your strategies to sustain the increased demand.

Our tests using real industry data have shown that integrating Demand Impact Patterns into forecasting models results in a notable increase in accuracy, with a 2.2% absolute improvement in MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) for accommodation compared to forecasts using features without Demand Impact Patterns.

    "impact_patterns": [
        "vertical": "accommodation",
        "impact_type": "phq_attendance",
        "impacts": [
            {"date_local": "2018-02-26", "value": 14250, "position": "leading"},
            {"date_local": "2018-02-27", "value": 14250, "position": "leading"},
            {"date_local": "2018-02-28", "value": 85500, "position": "leading"},
            {"date_local": "2018-03-01", "value": 95000, "position": "event_day"},
            {"date_local": "2018-03-02", "value": 95000, "position": "event_day"},
            {"date_local": "2018-03-03", "value": 95000, "position": "event_day"},
            {"date_local": "2018-03-04", "value": 95000, "position": "event_day"},
            {"date_local": "2018-03-05", "value": 33250, "position": "lagging"},
            {"date_local": "2018-03-06", "value": 4750, "position": "lagging"}
Accurately predict accommodation demand

See Demand Impact Patterns for several event categories

PredictHQ Demand Impact Patterns accurately predict how different event categories impact local businesses before they even start and after they end.

The feature predicts how accommodation and hospitality demand will be impacted by the following event categories:

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